1.     TITLE        LIST

1.1            Project name

----------------------------

                            TIME CALCULATION (day),   PLACE (coordinations), and       

               STRENGTH (magnitude)  OF  POSSIBLE   FUTURE  CATASTROPHE

1.2            THE NAME OF PROJECT REPRESENTATIVE

Dr. Professor Alexandr Melik-Yolchyan

Academician of International Academy of Ecological and Life Protection Sciences (IAELPS) Russia

                           Academician of New-York Academy of Sciences (USA)

                           Honorable Professor of Armenian-Russian University

                             1.3 Adress, tel., fax, email, web.site:

                                 Tel:  (3741) 53 41 85,

                                  Fax (3741) 53 41 85,

                                  E-mail:     prognoz@land. ru

                                 Web.site:  www.zemlprognoz.narod.ru

2. EXECUTIVE RESUME.

. Earthquakes and other natural disasters short-term prediction.

The work represents new previously unknown appropriateness, on the basis of which is possible to solve the short-term prediction earthquakes problem and reduction of seism dangerous territories.

1. Short-term earthquakes prediction and other natural disasters.

2.  The connection of start point resonance interaction regularities of interplanetary magnetic and gravitational fields with the geomagnetic field and the earthquake start-point and tectonic crust earthquake magnitude with the sizes and types of seimogenous geological breakings;

3. The connection of emitted and observed seismic wave’s regularities, arising in the center during the process of earthquake preparing;

           4.    Электромагнитная  модель  возникновения  и  развития   очага

землетрясений.

           5.    Взаимодействие  планетарных  дипольных  полей  и  их  влияние  на

развитие  очага  землетрясений

            6. Prevention of catastrophe earthquakes consequences by the method of   strenuous breaking into the zone of future earthquake;

7. Methods of arising the buildings and construction seism stability, which allows standing the strong earthquakes without dangerous damages. 

  Earthquakes and other natural disasters short-term prediction method based on the theoretical determination of predicted event’s coordinates allows determining dangerous local zones on the Globe’s intend for the preventing the of ships, airplanes and space ships possible catastrophes, as well as to predict  the possible technogenous catastrophes on the huge power-consuming installations (Nuclear Power Station etc.).

The work reveals the researches of following main problems, without of that is impossible to solve the problem of people life security from natural desasters.

2.1  EARTHQUAKES AND OTHER NATURAL DISASTERS

SHORT-TERM    PREDICTION

2.2   appropriateness OF CONNECTION OF START POINT

RESONANCE INTERACTION OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC

AND GRAVITATIONAL FIELDS HAVING THE GEOMAGNETIC

FIELD WITH THE EARTHQUAKE START POINT

2.3 dependence of TECTONIc EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE FROM SIZES AND TYPES OF SEISMOGENOUS GEOLOGICAL FAULTs

2.4    THEORETICAL CALCULATION FOR EARTHQUAKE FORCASTING AND OTHER NATURAL DISASTERSFOR WHOLE TERRITORY OF THE WORLD ON UNLIMITTED TIME FORWARD

2.5 ELECTROMAGNETIC MODEL OF EARTHQUAKE CETRE BEGINNING AND DEVELOPING

2.6      GEOCURRENT MECHANISM FORMATION AND ELECTRICAL FIELD IN THE GROUND

2.7  Interaction of dipol planetary fields and its influence on earthquake cetre DEVELOPING

2.8 CONNECTION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES WITH FLOOD DEFORMATION OF THE EARTH CRUST.

2.9 connection appropriates of emmiting and observed seismic waves, which are begins in centre during the earthquake preparing

2.10       BUILDINGS AND CONSTRUCTIONS SEISMIC

STABILITY INCREASING

2.11 METHOD OF DISASTROUS EARTHQUAKE PREVENTION BY THE HELP OF INTENSITY DISCHARGE IN THE CENTRE DIRECTED BY THE ARTIFICIAL SEISMIC WAVES

Beginning of electromagnetic model mechanism and earthquake centre developing.

Theoretical method calculation of earthquake short-term forecast determining the place (coordinates), time (day) and magnetude of possible desasters is contains  that in the given geological area in active seismogenic structures the strong earthquakes are occure in the moment of resonance time of interaction of interplanet magnetic and graviation fields with geomagnetic field, and projection of a point of resonance field interaction on the the Earth surface, pointed out the earthquake beginning place (coordinates).

Earthquake magnitude (energy) is proportional to a linear sizes of seismogenic geological cracks and reflected the universal cause and effect dependence between the interplanet interaction of magnetic and gravitation fields with geomagnetic field, which is point out the place of earthquake beginning and its magnetude.

The real model is build on possibility of theory intergration of electromagnetic waves through the ionasphere with theory of hydrodinamic rezonance. On the the  one hand the sudden magnetic sphere deformation, which begins on magnetic pouse and allocates through the magnetic sphere and reaches the earth surface in magnetic hydrodinamic waves type, from the other hand in bowels of the Earth the stratum of increased electrical conductivity are discovered. On the 400-1000 km depth it is increased on 10 times more, and lower it is falling again. The alternation of a different stratums is occured. The specialist are thinking, that the undergraund spheres of earth's crust and cloak are the «electrical condensers».

            The strips of metal of this condensers are by various things the loading stratums of minning rocks, and from time to time the underground lightnings are get through it.

Experimental confirmed, that in time of the most strong earthquakes the atmosphere is lighted, and on clean sky the lightnings are observed.  It is natural, that the air begins to shine on strong electrical field. And this field is occures in atmosphere by electrical power activity, which are accumulated under the graund and are ready to come to an action even in the minimal balance break.

Further on the phisical mechanism  of this phenomenon is cnsidered, when ionosphere and the earth crust are considered as charged strip of “condenser”, between of which, under the certain conditions the discharge could occur, in result they lead to a temporary change of vector’s electrical field.

Intergration of gravitation and electromagnetic splash of Earth with electromagnetic field on ionosphere, in resonance fluctuation  pointed out on the Earth regions, where the possible disaster could occure. Seezing the project’s points coordinates of resonace interaction of interplanet magnetic fields with electromagnetic field of Earth, we could determine the coordinates pointed out the place of “trigger” influence, which is the reason of Earthquake beginning.

For building the electromagnetic model of earthquake beginning, let’s consider the examlple of flat condenser, which is filled by the substance and its electrical conductivity is - e.

Electrical permeability - h, current solidity  is directed paralel to axis x .

                                                        /-------- dх)---------/

Specific conductivity s (х) for all area is given. Properties for all planes which paralel to axis x are equal.

Let’s define the density of energy store r (х)  as function from х.

Equation, which expressed the law of  energy store protection in the condenser area (equation of continuity) have a following type:

                                                ¶r

                                                  ---- ‏  +   div i =  0                                     ( 1 )

                                                   ¶t

where: rх)  - density of electrical store in the point х in the time moment t;

i – average significance of current density in the substance arround of point х in the t moment;

In the case of stationary current, i.e. …¶r/¶t.=0… we have

.                                      I ‏=  const

From the condition of tension continuity of electrical field, we got

   Е ( х + dх)  ‏-  Е ( х )  =  4 p (х)                 ( 2 )

Assuming, that e ~ 1, let’s have the gas capacity of V and carried out the  /hЕ /<  кТ,

Where, E – outward electrical field,

            h - dielectric permeability,

             k – constant Boltsman,

             T – gas temperature,

Then,

                               N   h²

              Е‏=1+4  p---------                                                  (3)                                                                       

                              V 3kT

Where,

                          N           m         N_A                    N_A

                        --------  =  -----   -------    ~ V  --------

                         V            M         V                 V

N_A – Avogadro quantity

V - density substance dielectric, g/sm³

m – substance bulk, g/mol.

Form (3) we have ,

                                                  4 p V h²    N_A          

                               .E  =  1   + ------------------                            ( 4 )

                                                     3k T M

where,

V  = 1g/sm^{3 ,}, N_A=10^{24   ,}    h =  e ,  М  = 10²   g / mol.

                         К  = 10 ^-16      , Т  =  1000 К

Hence,

      4pVh² N_A                                                

             e  =   1   + --------------------    ~  1                        ( 5 )

                                  3k T M

                ¶ Е          

Intergrating   ----  =  4pr  with differantial Om’s law I = s Е,

                ¶x

we got,

                     ¶Е         I  

                  ------ =(  -----  )=  4pr                                          ( 6 )

                     ¶x            s

the result is,

             I     ¶      I       I        1      ¶s                     

     r  =  ---  -----   ---  ( -- ) = ---- ---------                                     ( 7 )

              4p   ¶x     s    4p      s ²    ¶x

From the equation (7) follows that, if the area has the gradient of specific conductivity, i.e. ¶s / ¶x  ≠  0, so in the

stationary regime of the different points of substance established its significance of density chargies.

Let’s fix the specific resistance through r. Then for ¶r /   ¶х  the graph wil have following type:

                                    Graph of gradient specific conductivity.

From the Fig. we see, that from X= 0 to X =a the charge density is nagative. Thus, the area which is given on Fig. will have the following type;

I 

From the border for the tanget component of intensity of the electrical field we have;

From border’s conditions for normal component of electrical field we have

The alternating electromagnetic fields, which are passing in the Earth substancies,creating the displacement points

could cahnge the solidity of charge allocation in the earth owing to existence of gradient conductivity.

2. In the centre of conducting ball (sphere) with specific resistance r occures the surplus charge Q_o. This charge

will change in time by the law,

                              Q=Q_o e ^– 4p t                                  ( 15 )

Where t- is the relaxing time and equal to

                                                    1

                                          t =     -----                                      (16 )

                                                   4ps                           

i.e. the time when the charge is dicreasing in e times.

           The intensity of magnetic and electrical fields by the dipol radiation will have the following type:

                                                               ..

                                                            D              D

                                     Е  ~  H  ~  ---------  =  -----------  ( 18 )                                       

                                                         C²  L       C ²  t ²

Where, D – dipol moment D ~  Q ₀ d,

            d -  size of earth condenser, d  ~ 10 ⁷ sm.

             L – dintance from the place of discharging till the observation place.

From (18) we have got,

                                                    Q²₀  d            10 ^-1            1

                                 Е  ~  H  ~ --------------  ~ -----------   ~  -----  (  10⁵  ё  10 ³ )       (19)

                                                   C ²  t ² L       t ² L              L

On the distance L =  1 km ‏ =  10 ⁵  sm, we have

                                          Е  ~  H  ~   1 ё 10 ^-2

In scientific literature has the enough research quantities about strong changies of geomagnetic and geoelectric fieldsduring the earthquakes[].

In monographs [], in the big natural material, the experimental reasearches of this fields changings are given about every concrete earthquake. Below the table of experimental changings of geomagnetic field connected with earthquakes is given, which is taken from T. Rikitaki work. Unfortunately the author is giving the results of natural researches of geomagnetic field  changings connected with earthquakes, and he doesn’t gives the theoretical grounds.

In table, the maximum geomagnetic field changings og given earthquakes are measured in Ў.

It is known that 1 Ў = 10 ^-3  GS, is the density unite of geomagnetic field in system SGS and 1 GS = 10 ^-4 T (tesla) in the SI system

The results of experimental measures of geomagnetic fields during the earthquakes, which are given in the table and

received  by above mentioned method are well co-ordinate to each other.Let’s consider the questions of earthquake

centre developing, mechanic intensity dischargings by influence of electromagnec fields.As it is known, the equation,

which is express the law of charge conservation in the area, i.e. the equation of continuity, has following type(1)

where,

 which follows,

Electroconductivity of ground depths are determined by geomagnetic variation fade., which are stimulate by

solar activity in upper strata of Earth atmosphere.

Alternating electromagnetic signal (in considered case   

                where

      By depth increase the temperature is increases as well, and its increasing in insolators and

semiconductors brings to rapid electroconductive increasing.

Geophysical research methods allows to determine the allocation of electroconductivity to 1000km

depth, and allocation in the lower strata we estimate by help of physic’s solid body

and physic’s of upper pressures.

Equation system (24) could be converted if assume, that

                                       I = E ( x,t )   d ‏ ( x,t )               e  =  e₀ = const                ( 28)

The equation (28) we could proof that the field speed’s changing should be less than the field itself,

and the dielectrical qualities with the temperature and depths are changing slower than conductivity.

Then

                              In stationary condition, when

             The Earth surface,as we know, consists from tectonic plates, which are dip into a liquid phase and fluctuate in it with the definite frequence. Through this plates, in normal condition the geo-current is goes through, which is charging the strutums with the different gradient conductivity and different charge size. From conductive dependence s and earth depth is follows, that near the earth surface the gradient is positive, hence, from (31) we have q < 0.

On deths more than 100 km the gradient is nagative q > 0. By superficial power influence the plates could arise, in result of which the geo-current could be broken. In that sphere of contact,for example of depth 100km, the condenser is formated, which consevate in this sphere the electromagnetic energy. If consider the surface plate as nagative charged by condenser plate and depth stratums as positive charged plate, which has the thickness ~ 300 km, (then the stratums with nagative charge are going again), so we could estimate the electrical energy W in this sphere of condenser, which will have the size: 

                                                                  E ²                     

                                       W  =  q E d ~    ------   S d(32)                                           

                                                                  8p

where d – thickness of geo-current break.

For  plate size 1000 x 1000 km we have q ‏ =  10 ¹³  СГС units, d =  10 ⁷ sm, then we'll get

                                                    q ²

                                       W  =  -------  I =  10 ¹⁷  эрг ‏ =  10 ¹⁰ Dg.

                                                     S

Where I – dipol radiation intensity.

By remoting the surface plate from the lower stratum W is increased at the expense of superficial power work, as by condenser recharging a large quantity of energy is emmited. After that the plates are subsided and normal geo-current is installed, wich is rechaged the condenser again.

The plates has the period of fluctuation Т ‏=  1 hour 36  minutes. [P Melkhior. Phisyc and dinamik of planets Ⅱ Pub.,”World” M., 1976, 483p.] and by maxumum amplitude the earthquake could begin.

Strong earthquakes are begin by resonance interaction of superficial and interior electromagnetic fields, and power (magnitude) of earthquakes is depend from phisical and geometrical parameters of plates.

            Intesity of dipol radiation I by condenser recharging on large distancies from the recharging place will be    

             The mechanic power changing, which begins by interaction of tectonic plates is stipulate by electrical power changing and by recharging of its size is change on 10 ⁶ Н.

The electrical power changings is instantly releases the mechanic intensity, which is conservate in the bowelsof the earth, that brings to self-regulation changings, which is regenetated in earthquake.

Thus, the electromangetic earthquake forerunner experimental observed at all earthquakes, is the 'trigger',on seeking of which the attention of seismologists is derected.

All remained and known forerunners are the phenomena, which occured in the centre developing process and could play the secondary role in earthquake forecasting, that confirmed with researches held in Institute of Newclear geophysic of Russian Academy of Sience.

Based on observed facts Gubin I.E. [«Discoveries. Inventions» 1985,N:47], proofed, that the earthquake centre – plot of surface crack, in which the earthquake begins and developed the conseption of seismogenic zones (zone of possible centre beginning). It consists in, that strong shocks are not appears chaotic,but normally in strict correspondence with geoligical building in seismogenic zones,conditioned by active cracks in result of sharp displacement by them the geological structures.

The calculations of superficial electromagnetic fields interaction together with geomagnetic field allowes to forecast more than 11000 earthquakes on the whole territory of the Earth (560000000 km²) from 1995-2003, which were published in academic publications «Vestnic MASEB»,   in open press, as well as timely were handed to seismoservicies of 39 world countries.

            Ниже  приводятся  сравнительные  таблицы  расчитанных  (спрогнозиро-ванных) параметров  буду‏ющих  землетрясений  на  территорию  всей  Земли , переданных  более  40  странам  мира  за  один  месяц  до  события ( с  декабря

2002 года  по  октябрь  2003  года). Все Эти  землетрясения  приведены  выше

в  2002 году, в  таблицах.

Comparative  Table Of  Earthquakes For  December 2002 year

Comparative  Table Of  Earthquakes For  January-February 2003 year

Comparative Table Of  Earthquakes For  March 2003 year

Comporative Table Of  Earthquakes prognoses on territory of  America  in  April 2003

Comparative Table Of  Earthquake prognoses on territory of  Earth  in   April 2003

Comparative  Table Of  Earthquakes Prediction for  Jule  2003  year

Comparative  Table Of  Earthquakes Prediction for  August-September 2003 year

Comparative Table prediction Earthquakes On Territory Of America In September 2003 year