THE EARTHQUAKES SHORT-TERM PREDICTION
 

mailto:prognoz@land.rutel./fax (3741) 53-41-85

The accuracy of the  EARTHQUAKES  SHORT-TERM PREDICTION with metod Designed by Academician   Dr. Prof.  ALEXANDER G.MELIK-YOLTCHYAN makes for December 2002  -    91,5 % We can cooperation with your organization on realization Research program for more detail calculation for all Regions for 2003 year. COMPARATIVE  TABLE  EARTHQUAKE  PREDICTION Beginning of electromagnetic model mechanism  and earthquake centre developing.

Academician  Dr. Prof.  ALEXANDER G. MELIK-YOLTCHYAN

From April 1971 Doctor of engineering science

From November 1997 Actual Member
of INTERNETIONAL ACADEMY of ECOLOGY and LIFEPROTECTION SCIENCES
 ( IAELPS )

From February 1998 Activ Member of the New York Academy of Sciences

From  1999, April, 05 elected as ACADEMICAL ADVISER
in  ACADEMY OF ENGINERRING OF ARMENIA

From September 2001  Honourable Professor "MHITAR GOSH" INTERNETIONAL UNIVERSITY

Dr. Prof.  ALEXANDER G. MELIK-YOLTCHYANhave more whan 150 publication and  7  monographies

The especially strong earthquakes in 2003 are expected
in London, Seattle, Istanbul and Tokyo.

We can send you  list of earthquakes prognoses for one Month ahead.

We can send you  Comparative  Table Of  Earthquakes For  December 2002 year

The list of earthquakes prognoses for December 2002  was sent to 36 countries in Xl.02

Happened 91,5%

Annotation:
1.    Data in the prognosis (Pr) are calculated by “star time”, and the happenedearthquakes (int.) are put in by “local time” in every region of the Earth.Transition from one time to the other, taking into consideration the latitudeswill give the “true time”.
2.    Coordinate deviations are the result of seismo-tectonic parameters absence (map) of calculated regions.
Having this data we could get more high accuracy of calculations.
3.    Coordinate differences (Pr-int.) are given in columns (7-9). Whilecrossing from degrees to the kilometers should be taken into consideration that 1 on equator has 110km of length, and in pole – 8km.
4.    Table analysis:
a)    Pr.- int. = 0º-1º -32 i.e. = 24,6%
b)    Pr.- int. = 0º-2º (i.e. from 0 km to 100 km) = --63 i.e. = 48,5%
Pr. – int. = 0º-3….109… i.e. = 83,8%            
c)    Total, from 130 prognosis in shown limits 119 took place, i.e accuracy is = 91,5%
d)    All calculations of earthquakes were made without considering the seismo-tectonicparameters (maps) of Earth regions due to their absence.
e)    Data of 11 prognosis are absent ( i.e. South-central Africa: data were not available).

THEEARTHQUAKES SHORT-TERM  PREDICTION on January-November  2003	If you want have more detail information pleaseconnect with us  on E-mail : prognoz@land.ru
	With all interested organizations    we can signed the        CONTRACT  on realization of more detail calculation for your Region
	The accuracy of the  SHORT-TERM PREDICTION for December 2002 makes 91,5 %
prognoz@land.ru	prognoz@land.ru

ALEXANDER G.MELIK-YOLCHIAN. VILEN G.CHALABOV

EARTHQUAKES AND OTHER NATURAL DISASTERS
SHORT-TERM PREDICTION
(Calculation and theoretical prediction of the place,time and force of the possible future earthquakes)

SANKT-PETERSBURG

2000
 

( first 10 pages )
 

VM 550.349 EEK 26.21 M474
M 474 Alexander G.Melik-Yolchian, Vilen G.Chalabov. Earthquakes andother
natural disasters short-term prediction. This monograph representsthe new previously unknown appropriateness on the basis of which it ispossible to solve the short-term prediction problem: earthquakes and othernatural disaster short-term prediction; appropriateness of the connectionof the start point resonance interaction of the interplanetary magneticand gravitational fields having the geomagnetic field with the earthquakestart-point and tectonic crust earthquake magnitude with the sizes andtypes of the seismogenous geological faults; appropriateness of the connectionof the emitted and observed seismic waves, occurring in the center duringthe earthquake's preparing; preventing of the strong earthquakes consequencesby the help of the strength's breaking into the zone of the future earthquake;geological processes connection with the galaxy recurrence; law of theplanetary and satellite distances, on the basis of which the Solar systemplanets dynamical characteristics had been calculated beginning from themoment of their origin till today and ten billion years ahead, as wellas the methods of the buildings and constructions seismic stability increasingallow withstanding the strong earthquakes without dangerous damages.
The earthquakes and other natural disasters short-term prediction methodbased on the theoretical determination of predicted event's coordinatesallow determining dangerous local zones on the Globe's intend for the preventingof the ships, the airplanes and the space ships possible catastrophes aswell as to predict the possible technogenous catastrophes on the largepower-consuming installations (Nuclear Power Station etc.).
This monograph is for the scientists and specialists, working in thefield of the seismology, planetology and seismic stability designing, alsofor the students and engineers.
Edition                     pages                      2000
scientific thesis Printed by the decision of IAELPS Board
 EEK 26.21
     1803020000
M----------------20000
     0038(01)-2000
 ALEXANDER G.MELIK-YOLCHIAN, VILEN G.CHALABOV
Yerevan 2000
 
 

"EARTHQUAKES AND OTHER   NATURAL DISASTERS SHORT-TERM PREDICTION"

I.

II

III

IV

V

INTRODUCTION
The problem of the people's life safeguarding and security of the material values created by the mankind against the catastrophic earthquakes is inthe solving of the three main issues:
1. Earthquakes and other nature catastrophes short-term predictionalong with the time, place and strength indication.
2. Buildings and constructions designing so that they would not bedestroyed by the catastrophic earthquakes.
3 Strong earthquakes' catastrophic consequences prevention.
Developing of the devise, accumulating the loadings, which are formingthe seismic waves of the grate duration having the aim to discharge theearthquake center stress in the process of the earthquake preparing, i.e.to divide the strong predicted earthquake into the two or three weak earthquakes.This part of the work is represented below in the form of the brief annotation,because only the theoretical and design works was provided and device wasdeveloped. In is necessary to provide nature experiments for the finalprecising of the parameters of the mechanism creating the seismic wavesof the great duration.
This work represents such new, previously unknown appropriateness as:
1. Appropriateness of the connection of the time resonance interactionof the interplanetary magnetic and gravity fields with the geomagneticone with the earthquake start point and tectonic crust earthquake magnitudehaving the dimensions and type of the seismogenous geological faults. Earthquakes short-time prediction.
2 Appropriateness of the emitted and observed seismic waves connectionborn into the center during the earthquake preparing.
3. The law of the planetary and satellite distances.
These three new appropriateness allow to explain the number of questionsin the different fields of science which have no answer today, concerningto the geological, biological and planetological life of the Solar systemplanets and the other Universe planetary systems.
Present work is the investigation of the earthquake prediction problems("Earthquake short-term prediction"), developing of the methods, directedto the buildings and constructions seismic stability increasing, as wellas the solutions allowed to decrease the catastrophic consequences causedby the strong earthquakes by the help of dividing the energy accumulatedinto the future earthquake's center and direction of the artificial seismicwaves of the long duration into the earthquake center.
For the solution of the main seismology problem, i.e. the earthquakeprediction with the aim of people's life saving and decreasing of the materialvalues losses, first of all it is necessary to know the place, the timeand the strength of the earthquake, i.e. to give the earthquake short-termprediction and, secondly, to design buildings and constmctions so thatthey will not be destroyed during the earthquake.
The First Chapter represents the problems of the earthquake short-termprediction. The new, previously unknown "Appropriateness of the connectionof the time resonance interaction of the interplanetary magnetic and gravityfields with the geomagnetic one with the earthquake start point and thetectonic crust earthquake magnitude having the dimensions and type of theseismogenousgeological faults" allow to predict the
earthquakes along with the indicating of the place, time and strengthof the future possible earthquake.
Theoretically received and experimentally approved appropriatenessin the all earthquakes predicted all over the world and taking place from1900 to 1993 (retroprediction) by the strength ofM-4.5-7.5 and predictedfor the two or three months before the event from 1993 to 1999 more than3000 earthquakes by the strength ofM=4.5-7.5 appropriateness make a fundamentalchanges into the existing idea about the nature and properties of the earthquakescenter machinery development as well as determined the casual and consequencerelation between the seismic-tectonic machinery of the center and the SolarSystem gravity and the interplanetary magnetic fields.
On the basis of the received appropriateness it is possible to solvethe problem as follows:
1. Earthquakes short-term prediction with the indication of the place,time and strength of the possible future events.
2. Natural catastrophes short-term prediction: tsunami, typhoons, hurricanes, floods, and landslides.
3. Determination of the dangerous areas for the airplanes and shipspassing with the indication of the possible disasters co-ordinate and time.
4. Theoretical determination of the place and time of the Earth electricfield tension impulse changing lead to the technogenous and natural catastrophes.
5. Determination of the geomagnetic field impulse interaction withthe Solar system magnetic fields, playing the role of the "starting mechanism"during the strong earthquakes.
6. Determination of the place and time of the Solar system planets'gravity influence impulse changing playing the role of the "starting mechanism"during the strong earthquakes.
The Second Chapter is about the interdependence of the seismic wavesemitted by the earthquake center in the process of its developing.
The previously unknown connection appropriateness between the lengthof the observed and emitted seismic (plane) waves into the solid body (center)ruined under the influence of the mechanic forces (static, dynamic, heating)had been established.
The obtained appropriateness of the difference ratio between the lengthsof the observed and emitted seismic waves at the crack's developing intothe center of the future earthquake is increasing up to the maximum, afterwhich the sharp dropping of the curve's ratio up to the minimum is takingplace, then after some time, preceding the moment of the destroying thesharp increasing is taking place, characterizing the strength loss beginning- destroying (earthquake).
The obtained appropriateness allow determining the destroying momentof the materials and constructions being under the influence of the mechanicforces (static, dynamic, heating) by the registration of the acoustic waves,emitted by the crack into the solid body and obtaining the appropriatenessbetween the meanings of the waves of different type according to whichit is possible to judge about the time of the construction material's (center)structural changing and about the starting of the maximum permissible strengthcondition i.e. destroying.
 

The Third Chapter represents the method of the nature investigations, allow precising the place, time and force of the predicted earthquake.
The obtained theoretical appropriateness will give the possibilityto determine the place, time and force of the future possible earthquakeand other natural disasters. But it would be prematurely to make the extrememeasures on the prediction theoretical solution because it is possibleof some deviations from the true values. That's why the nature method isrepresented, which will give the possibility to the local seismic stationon the definite site to provide the nature studying and precise the theoreticalcalculations in order to give the precised parameters of the place, timeand force of the future possible event.
The Fourth Chapter is about the previously unknown law of the planetaryand satellite distances theoretically obtained from the revealed dependenceof the Solar system planets velocity moving off out of the Sun which determines the appropriateness of the planetary and satellite distribution into thecelestial system as well as the distances appropriateness into the Planet-Satellite system has been cited.
The results of the studying of the Solar system planets dynamic characteristics changing beginning from the planets origin till today, calculated according to the Law of the planetary and satellite distances has been adduced along with the prediction of the Solar system planets dynamic characteristicbeginning from today and ten billion years ahead. This would allow explaininglots of the problem having no answer today concerning to the further evolutionof the Solar system planets.
The Fifth Chapter is dedicated to the new patented methods of the seismic stability buildings and constructions engineering, the seismic stabilityof which is increasing up to 2-3 forces. These methods have 4 Patents (1975-1985) and one Patent in Spain (1991).
So, the results of the provided studying allow solving the people'sprotection and material values safety problem in complex.
Practical meaning of the adduced investigation is in the creation ofthe principally new method of the strong tectonic earthquakes and othernature disasters short-term prediction with the pointing out the place,time and force of the future possible events:
earthquakes, tsunami, typhoon etc.
Developed method allow also predicting the danger local zones for thepassing through air, space and sea ships into the Atmosphere and WorldOceans, as well as the technogenous disasters connected to the operatingof the Nuclear Power stations, large power-consumption installation etc.
 

GROUNDING OF THE ACTUALITY

THE ESSENCE AND METHODS

SCIENTIFIC STATEMENT

FIELD OF THE OBTAINED APPROPRIATENESS OF THE SCIENTIFIC AND PRACTICALAPPLICATION

6. Determination of the time and place of the Solar system planets gravityinfluence changing on the Earth.
7 Determination of the time of the surface and underground constructionsmaximum ultimate strength condition starting.
Practical significance of the present discover is in the creation ofthe new method for the strong tectonic earthquakes short term predictionwith the definition of the place (co-ordinates), time and magnitude (energy)of the future possible tectonic earthquakes and other natural catastrophessuch as tsunami, typhoons, hurricanes, floods, landslides and active volcanoes.Along with this, developed method, allowed to predict the dangerous localareas for the air, space and sea ships in the Air and World oceans as wellas the technogenous catastrophes connected to the Nuclear Power Plants,large power-intensive industrial installation etc.
At the greater length the point of the discovery, its scientific andpractical significance is represented in the scientific publications ("Heraldof International Academy of Ecology and Life Protection Science, St. Petersburg)and in the monograph named "Geonomy".
The above mentioned was approved by the experimental investigationscarried out on more than 3000 predicted earthquakes and other natural catastrophes for the period of 1994-1999, the results of which was published in 12 world countries (see Appendix)
 

  page 23 

What we claim:
The previously unknown appropriateness of the connection of the start point resonance interaction of the interplanetary magnetic and gravitational fields having the geomagnetic field with the start point of earthquake's starting and tectonic crust continental earthquakes magnitude with the dimensions and types of the seismogenous geological structure, consists in that in the given geological media into the active seismogenous structure the strong earthquakes occurs during the start point of the resonance interaction of the interplanetary magnet and gravitational fields with the geomagnetic one and the foot of the resonance fields-interactions to the Earth surface indicates the point (co-ordinates) of earthquake's occurrence, taking into consideration that the magnitude (energy) of the tectonic earthquake is in proportional to the dimensions of the seismogenous breaks reflecting the universal casual-consequence relationship between the time of the earthquake's beginning and the time of the resonance interaction of the interplanetary magnetic and gravitational fields with the Earth geomagnetic field, indicated the earthquake origin place (co-ordinates) and earthquake jointing magnitude (energy) with the seismogenous geological structure dimensions and types had been established.

  page 62

II.
2.1. THE APPROPRIATENESS OF THE CONNECTION OF THE SEISMIC WAVES, EMITTED BY THE EARTHQUAKE CENTER
Mechanical system of process investigation into the destroying center is considered as limited volume, including the crack area, deformed by the forces, applied on its external surface [35, 37]. fig. 27
Displacements extension into the deformed body of the crack surface lead to the energetic changes. They are the reason that on the crack surface, owing to the media mechanical properties, the release of the external tension field elastic energy is taking place. One part of it is converted to the displacement fields energy, accompanying the breakage i.e. into the energy of own stress field, the other part is consumed for the irreversible processes into the breakage area. In the process of crack extension kinetic energy is dispersed.

Fig.27. Limited volume with the developing crack. B and C - crack tops.
Let's assume that the coordinate system is choused so, that the limited fault area including the beginning of XYZ coordinate system is located into the XZ plane, and normally is oriented along the Y-axis. Breakage faces are displaced one towards another in the XZ plane in the X direction. Let's consider the crack received in the process of its wave developing with the frequency of f waves per second (Fig.26).
IfB point of crack's top is moving towards to Z by the velocity ofVcR , it is moved off at the distance ofVcR during 1 second. At the crack developing in the direction ofZ, crack's top is emitting energy in the form of the ultrasonic oscillations, which could be fixed by the device in the point A. Interval between the waves consecutively emitted by the crack's top is equal to 1/f sec. For this time B top of the crack would pass the distance of Vcp/f cm, i.e. VCR x T,
where T=—sec. is the emitting wave period. That's why the waves must be pass the long way

page 92-96

IV. 4.1. BUILDINGS AND CONSTRUCTIONS SEISMIC STABILITY INCREASING
According to the suggested theoretical and experimental nature and modular investigation [35] methods of buildings and constructions strength increasing would allow the building not only to resist at the strong earthquakes but also to preserve its constructive scheme without dangerous deformations.
It has been noted [35] that the seismic wave intensity decreasing is taking place on the account of the waves screening (absorbing and refraction of multiple refraction into the screen layers). But, if we should not stick the building's space stiff scheme and let it travel under the strong seismic influence and, hence, remove the bending load out of the constructive elements, the building's strength will increase.
As it is known [35, 37] on the two medias interface there is the "limited angle" of the wave's falling on the boundary corresponding to the medias' parameters, at which the wave does not refract into the second media, but is sliding on the medias interface. Hence, if the screening belt layers will be set up under the "critical angle" for the given grounds, the wave sliding on the medias interface (ground and screen layers) will "pass" into the underlayer. The laminated screen will diminish the smaller part of the wave, which will pass through the screen owing to the absorption. So, the greatly attenuated seismic waves will be affected on the building's construction. The laminated bed made of any of elastic material is created on the building's foundation, which will give the possibility the building to move in the whole. This will relieve the bending loads out of the building's construction by the increasing of its seismic stability [47].
By the summarizing the above mentioned, it is possible to came to the following conclusion:
the intensity of the seismic wave, affected on the building's construction will be decrease two time on the account of the lamination of screen, mobility of the building, based on the pliable foundation, i.e. the constructions releasing from the bending loads and on the account of the wave's sliding along the "ground-screen" boundary in case of the screen belt layers building under the "critical angle".
FOUNDATION UNDER THE BASEMENT AND SCREENING BELT is carried out by the following way:
The screening belt is installing along the buildings or constructions perimeter (Fig. 31) and along their depth from outside. The layers are installing at the "critical angle" for the given "ground-screen" combination.

Fig.31. Section of foundation ofbuildins on the elastic basis with the screen belt.
 
The laminar pad was prepared on the building's foundation through which the waves are passing. This will give the possibility to move the building in whole. As it is known, the concrete cement is working in bending rather bad, and building's moving in whole completely removed the bending load, this in its turn increases the construction's seismic stability. Summarizing the above mentioned it is possible to came to the following conclusion: the intensity of the seismic wave, attacked on the building will be significantly relaxed (1.5-2.0 number) owing to the seismic waves screening and removing the bending loads out of the building's construction. The increasing of building's seismic stability during the earthquake had been observed.

4.2. DESIGNING OF THE MODULAR SYSTEM IN THE SEISMOSTABLE BUILDINGS AND CONSTRUCTIONS
The method of the seismostable buildings and constmctions designing, offered by the authors [48] is based on the using of the blocks and modules which could be prepared from mortar, clay etc, and the specific configuration peculiarities of whose allow obtaining the connection and adhesion with each other without application of cement mortars or fastening means which are usually employing at the traditional methods of the construction, because, according to this method, the connection and adhesion of different construction modules with each other is attained by their interpenetrating.
Building or construction designed by this method will possess by the heightened strength in respect to the seismic shocks and shakings. Offered modular system envisages the 3-4 stoteyed buildings construction erection in the shortest time and with the minimum number of workers.
Simultaneously given method could be applied for the construction of the high-rise building by the help of block engineering method. Thus will give the heightened seismic stability to the buildings and constructions
Module or basic block during the walls erection according tot he given method represents the block in the form of the rectangular prism with the cone planes of support, one side of which has the convexity in the form of double "T" and the other side has the cross-shape recess corresponds to this convexity. Such configuration allows these modules engaging their displacement in respect to each other. The engaging is obtained as the reason of that the one part of the convexity "T" on the one side of module is keeping the part of recess envisaged on the opposite part of the other module and so each of modules located on the top is engaging with the two neighbor modules located below.
Such connection will give the possibility the blocks to move in the range of the foreseeing permission during the seismic loading, so, converting each block into the element, working as hinge with the zero moments on the ends.

Fig.32a.Fragment of wall with angle at the modular system of building

Fig 32b Fragment of wall with angle at the modular system of building
The construction on the basis of modules allow providing building's mounting without any of the additional elements employing, because the mounting process comes to the connection of the bulges and recesses, by which all the modules are supplied. Such connection provides the integrity of building and pliancy of modules in respect to each other into the permissible limits. The mounting is carried out by the help of "dry" method of the modules engaging without the cement mortars participation. This will give the great economic effect on the account of the raw materials expenditures reducing and labor force economy.
As there is no need to enlist the skilled labor force for the providing of given operations (because the construction mounting comes to the simple placement of different modules, which are stacking up together only at their right disposal) this is reflected on the minimization of time expenditures for the mounting and, hence, on the terms of works finishing.
Initially, buildings and constructions designed on the basis of modular system are intend for the regions with the seismic activity and possessed by the heightened seismic stability.
By the using of the above mentioned method it is possible to provide the buildings construction both into the city boundaries and in suburbs as well as at the construction of the village houses, cottages, industrial and warehouses shops etc. The only feature is that the different modules dimensions as well as their thermophysical peculiarities should be vary in accordance with the building's final predestination and its project.

  The present system is ideal also for the building construction on the mountain slopes and where it is rather difficult to provide he other type of construction.
The mentioned method of the modular construction could be provided also at the temporary buildings construction, because it envisages the dismantling previously mounted construction and its repeatedly application in some other place, which comes from the principle of modules jointing without any cement mortars.
Necessary materials for the modules production could be any of raw material (concrete, clay, pressed blocks with the inclusion of chemical compositions and components) up to any of the analogous suitable material.
Construction according to above-mentioned method is carried out as follows:
First of all the foundation lying is carried out. The foundation arrangements, described in the First part of the given thesis will allow to construct building and construction possessed by the highly seismic stability.
The beam is placed on the foundation, provided so that allows mounting wall blocks on the very top of the surface, which are placed in consecutive order. First, the lower row is formed, then the other lying above. The rows are arranged by the using of the same basic modules, but on the row, lying above, modules are disposed with the shift in respect to modules forming the lower row, i.e. the half part of the projection with the corresponding joist placed so that it occupies the whole section of the extreme deepening and the half part of central deepening of module placed immediately under it. The other module is placed nearby covering the other half part of the underlying module and the half part of underlying module placed close. So, the modules are jointed together by the help of crucitform deepenings and projections placed on the opposite sides. Such connection called "lock" system provides different modules immobility through the whole directions [49 50, and 51].
Module engineering on the pliable foundation will ensure the highly seismic stability to the buildings and constructions.